UK Trade in 2008 and comparisons with 2007

UK Imports of Cheddar Cheese in 2008

Tonnes	2008	2007	Change	Change
JAN to JUNE	30,205	53,214	-23,009	-43.2%

Note: All data subject to retrospective changes.

The Cheddar import statistics for June 2008 continued to show significant year on year falls, of slightly less than 30% (-2,500 tonnes). The falls were led by Ireland (-2,200 tonnes) and New Zealand/Australia were also down, by 400 tonnes.

Cumulatively, the import statistics show UK Cheddar imports down by 23,000 tonnes for the first six months of 2008 compared to 2007. Imports from Ireland are reported to be 55% down and supplies from New Zealand/Australia are reported to be nearly 30% down. There is a growing view amongst some market commentators that the statistics, particularly those relating to imports from Ireland, understate the true level of Cheddar imports into the UK. So the data should be looked at with some caution and it may be that retrospective changes will at some stage be made.

UK Imports of Speciality Cheese in 2008

Tonnes	2008	2007	Change	Change
JAN to JUNE	138,667	147,189	-8,522	-5.8%

Note: All data subject to retrospective changes.

There has been a major upward revision to Speciality Cheese data for 2007 that has the effect of raising UK Speciality Cheese imports by 25,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes for the whole year. Some market commentators are expressing doubts about the new data and further revisions seem likely. The data for 2008, which is lower than the revised data for 2007, should be looked at in that light.

Imports of Speciality Cheese in June 2008 at 22,000 tonnes were 3,000 tonnes less than 12 months earlier. Cumulatively for the first six months of the year, Speciality Cheese imports are reported to be some 8,500 tonnes lower in 2008 than in 2007, at nearly 139,000 tonnes. The largest changes by country were a fall of 7,400 tonnes from Greece (which is based upon a revised and exceptionally high figure for 2007 Feta imports), a fall of 5,700 tonnes from Denmark, and a fall of 2,200 tonnes from France. There were offsetting gains from Italy (+6,900 tonnes) and from Germany (+1,900 tonnes).

Amongst the main categories of cheese growth, Fresh Cheese continued to show year on year gains (+6,500 tonnes) with Italy accounting for most of this, Processed Cheese was 1,100 tonnes down, Grated/Powdered was 650 tonnes up and Edam showed a 35% fall in imports of -1,400 tonnes.

UK Exports of Cheese in 2008

Tonnes	2008	2007	Change	Change
JAN to JUNE	43189	47598	-4,409	-9.3%

Note: All data subject to retrospective changes.

Exports of Cheese from the UK continued their lower pattern in 2008 compared to 2007 with a further fall in year on year exports in June of nearly 1,400 tonnes. Cumulatively, UK cheese exports were 4,400 tonnes down in the first six months of 2008 compared to 2007. Territorial cheese accounted for about 100 tonnes of this fall and 'Other Cheese' (which includes cheese used for pizza toppings and curd cheese exports) exports were 4,300 tonnes lower in 2008 than in 2007.

UK Imports of Butter in 2008

Tonnes	2008	2007	Change	Change
JAN to JUNE (see text)	36,292	42,107	see text	see text

Note: All data subject to retrospective changes.

* Please note that the butter imported from Denmark includes Anchor butter from New Zealand which is actually channelled via Denmark.

Imports of butter in June 2008 were reported to be 400 tonnes higher than in 2007. Imports from Ireland were over 1,000 tonnes up and Sweden sent nearly 600 tonnes more than the previous year. Imports from New Zealand were nearly 400 tonnes down and Belgium was over 200 tonnes lower.

The published statistics show butter imports were 5,800 tonnes lower in 2008 than in 2007 for the first six months of the year with Ireland accounting for nearly half of the fall.

It should be noted that all of the butter import statistics remain uncertain and are subject to potentially large retrospective changes.

UK Exports of Butter in 2008

Tonnes	2008	2007	Change	Change
JAN to JUNE	4,590	8,558	-3,969	-46.4%

Note: All data subject to retrospective changes.

Exports of butter from the UK continued to run at just over half 2007 levels in the first six months of 2008. The largest part of the fall (accounting for some 64% of it) has occurred because the bulk butter export business to non-EU countries has been at very low levels indeed. But all the other categories of bulk butter exports are also showing falls with packet butter exports to EU countries down by 370 tonnes, packet butter exports to non-EU countries down by 610 tonnes and bulk butter exports to EU countries down by 450 tonnes.

UK Dairy Trade Balance
Published 12 May 2008

The provisional deficit in the UK trade balance in dairy products fell in 2007 by £89m to £881m. Although the value of imported dairy products was little changed at £1.61bn, the value of dairy exports grew by about 14% to £732m.

£m	Imports	Exports	Deficit
1990	931	455	-476
1991	888	437	-451
1992	1,030	505	-525
1993	921	589	-332
1994	965	623	-342
1995	983	734	-249
1996	1,063	654	-409
1997	993	672	-321
1998	1,006	660	-346
1999	1,021	597	-424
2000	1,032	570	-462
2001	1,098	534	-564
2002	1,092	530	-562
2003	1,341	651	-690
2004	1,435	691	-744
2005	1,535	642	-893
2006	1,613	642	-971
2007*	1,613	732	-881

Source: Customs & Excise
*Figures include estimates